Saturday, June 3, 2023

UQSay #61

The sixty-first UQSay seminar on UQ, DACE and related topics will take place online on Thursday afternoon, June 8, 2023.

2–3 PM — Sophie Ricci (CECI, CERFACS & UMR 5318) — [slides]

On the merits of using remote sensing Earth Observation data to reduce uncertainties in flood forecasting with ensemble-based data assimilation

Flood simulation and forecast capability have been greatly improved thanks to advances in data assimilation (DA) strategies incorporating various types of observations; many are derived from spatial Earth Observation. This paper focuses on the assimilation of 2D flood observations derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images acquired during a flood event with a dual state-parameter Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Binary wet/dry maps are here expressed in terms of wet surface ratios (WSR) over a number of subdomains of the floodplain. This ratio is further assimilated jointly with in-situ water-level observations to improve the flow dynamics within the floodplain. However, the non-Gaussianity of the observation errors associated with SAR-derived measurements break a major hypothesis for the application of the EnKF, thus jeopardizing the optimality of the filter analysis. The novelty of this paper lies in the treatment of the non-Gaussianity of the SAR-derived WSR observations with a Gaussian anamorphosis process (GA). This DA strategy was validated and applied over the Garonne Marmandaise catchment (South-west of France) represented with the TELEMAC-2D hydrodynamic model, first in a twin experiment and then for a major flood event that occurred in January-February 2021. It was shown that assimilating SAR-derived WSR observations, in complement to the in-situ water-level observations significantly improves the representation of the flood dynamics. Also, the GA transformation brings further improvement to the DA analysis, while not being a critical component in the DA strategy. This study heralds a reliable solution for flood forecasting over poorly gauged catchments thanks to available remote-sensing datasets.

Joint work with T. H. Nguyen & A. Piacentini (CECI, CERFACS), E. Simon (INP, IRIT), R. Rodriguez-Suquet & S. Peña-Luque (CNES).

Organizing committee: Pierre Barbillon (MIA-Paris), Julien Bect (L2S), Nicolas Bousquet (EDF R&D), Amélie Fau (LMPS), Filippo Gatti (LMPS), Bertrand Iooss (EDF R&D), Alexandre Janon (LMO), Sidonie Lefebvre (ONERA), Didier Lucor (LISN), Emmanuel Vazquez (L2S).

Coordinators: Julien Bect (L2S) & Sidonie Lefebvre (ONERA)

Practical details: the seminar will be held online using Microsoft Teams.

If you want to attend this seminar (or any of the forthcoming online UQSay seminars), and if you do not already have access to the UQSay group on Teams, simply send an email and you will be invited. Please specify which email address the invitation must be sent to (this has to be the address associated with your Teams account).

You will find the link to the seminar on the "General" UQSay channel on Teams, approximately 15 minutes before the beginning.

The technical side of things: you can use Teams either directly from your web browser or using the "fat client", which is available for most platforms (Windows, Linux, Mac, Android & iOS). We strongly recommend the latter option whenever possible. Please give it a try before the seminar to anticipate potential problems.