Monday, June 28, 2021

UQSay #33

The thirty-third UQSay seminar on UQ, DACE and related topics, organized by L2S, MSSMAT, LMT and EDF R&D, will take place online on Thursday afternoon, July 1, 2021.

2–3 PM — Iason Papaioannou (T.U. Munich) — [slides]


Reliability sensitivity analysis with FORM

This talk discusses reliability sensitivity analysis with the first-order reliability method (FORM). Classical sensitivity indices, which are often used to assess the influence of the input random variables on the probability of failure, are the FORM $\alpha$-factors. These factors are the directional cosines of the the most likely failure point in an underlying independent standard normal space and are obtained as by-products of the FORM analysis. The talk reviews a set of alternative reliability sensitivity indices and their estimation with FORM. Focus is put on variance-based reliability sensitivities that emerge from the variance decomposition of the indicator function of the failure event. The resulting first-order and total-effect reliability sensitivities can be estimated as a function of the FORM reliability indices and the $\alpha$-factors. The second part of the talk addresses decision-oriented sensitivities based on the concept of value of information. In particular, the indices associated with a decision related to the safety of an existing system are presented and their estimation with FORM is examined. The accuracy of the FORM approximations of the various sensitivities is demonstrated with numerical examples.

Joint work with Daniel Straub.

Ref: DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2021.107496 (preprint) and arxiv:2104.00986.

Organizing committee: Julien Bect (L2S), Emmanuel Vazquez (L2S), Didier Clouteau (MSSMAT), Filippo Gatti (MSSMAT), Fernando Lopez Caballero (MSSMAT), Amélie Fau (LMT), Bertrand Iooss (EDF R&D).

Practical details: the seminar will be held online using Microsoft Teams.

If you want to attend this seminar (or any of the forthcoming online UQSay seminars), and if you do not already have access to the UQSay group on Teams, simply send an email and you will be invited. Please specify which email address the invitation must be sent to (this has to be the address associated with your Teams account).

You will find the link to the seminar on the "General" UQSay channel on Teams, approximately 15 minutes before the beginning.

The technical side of things: you can use Teams either directly from you web browser or using the "fat client", which is available for most platforms (Windows, Linux, Mac, Android & iOS). We strongly recommend the latter option whenever possible. Please give it a try before the seminar to anticipate potential problems.